tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6638187113544241481.post9106755934919895344..comments2024-02-27T01:53:25.186-05:00Comments on Synthenomics: NGDP Autoregressions and the Lucas CritiqueYichuan Wanghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15398092824604478764noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6638187113544241481.post-37035960072017250282012-08-09T10:41:01.199-04:002012-08-09T10:41:01.199-04:00Yichuan,
Check out Noah Smith's comments on t...Yichuan,<br /><br />Check out Noah Smith's comments on those posts of mine.<br /><br />- EvanEvan Soltashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06212305798151301158noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6638187113544241481.post-4707510416830809362012-08-08T02:03:46.132-04:002012-08-08T02:03:46.132-04:00The Lucas Critique is actually a footnote to John ...The Lucas Critique is actually a footnote to John Maynard Keynes's criticisms of Tinbergen and the econometricians. See the following book and the following review.<br /><br />http://www.amazon.com/Probability-Econometrics-Truth-Methodology/dp/0521553598<br /><br />http://www.amazon.com/review/R3VENX8RPWEQXH/<br /><br />In any case, while I think NGDP targeting might work, I think that econometrics needs a more rigorous statistical methodology. Benoit Mandelbrot, like John Maynard Keynes, criticized the econometricians for the assumption of the standard normal distribution without a goodness of fit test.<br /><br />A reformed econometrics would be more in line with Keynes and Mandelbrot's criticisms. (Financial economics, with it's ARCH-GARCH-and-so-on techniques, needs to follow Mandelbrot. Fluctuations in investment that are subject to decision-making under uncertainty/ambiguity, according to Dr. Michael Emmett Brady, are best done with the the techniques of non-parametric statistics.Blue Aurorahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02044362251868221897noreply@blogger.com