tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6638187113544241481.post4059423378182898526..comments2024-02-27T01:53:25.186-05:00Comments on Synthenomics: Chinese Housing: A ReplyYichuan Wanghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15398092824604478764noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6638187113544241481.post-74849164621893433772019-03-21T07:46:53.897-04:002019-03-21T07:46:53.897-04:00Thank you for this excellent read!! I definitely l...Thank you for this excellent read!! I definitely loved every little bit of it. Cheers for the information. <br />This is the perfect blog for anyone who wants to know about this topic.<br /> You know so much it's almost hard to argue with you<br /><a href="https://ofwpinoytv.net/topic/pinoy-tambayan" rel="nofollow">Pinoy Tambayan</a>eve greenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07276877615106690211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6638187113544241481.post-71482379908844252722012-09-03T10:34:26.658-04:002012-09-03T10:34:26.658-04:00James, I've seen firsthand how poor some Chine...James, I've seen firsthand how poor some Chinese housing is. The way they deal with water damage is ridiculous, and there are always persistent problems with appliances breaking down. But even so, buildings do depreciate slower than say, farm machines, and the fact that they give a concrete service today probably makes them more attractive of an investment.<br /><br />You are probably correct in terms of the future difficulties, which seem to compound the issues we see in Chinese housing even more.Yichuan Wanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15398092824604478764noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6638187113544241481.post-33257200609587303372012-09-02T21:54:25.372-04:002012-09-02T21:54:25.372-04:00I'm not sure many people who have spent signif...I'm not sure many people who have spent significant time in recently-built Chinese housing would agree with the assessment that it "depreciates relatively slowly."<br /><br />Most residential buildings I've seen have experienced rapid physical deterioration. Also, new construction is much better today than it was even 5 years ago, and I would expect it to make similar leaps in the next decade. Taken together, I expect a building constructed in 2005 to be considered virtually unlivable by 2020.<br /><br />And when redevelopment is necessary, it becomes a question of unit owners' rights in the redevelopment process. This can be a thorny issue in the US. I can't imagine it will be much smoother in China.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00722401405603446790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6638187113544241481.post-49704564124761325022012-09-02T14:37:15.850-04:002012-09-02T14:37:15.850-04:00I like your word "fragilize" but, with r...I like your word "fragilize" but, with respect to Chinese housing, believe that there is a home ownership number below which the economy is not more fragile.<br />That number is maybe about 50% -- and I have little data except the US 65% - 69% (at peak), and a very low (don't know number) West EU ownership percentage; plus in Slovakia (Central / Eastern EU) a strong desire to own.<br /><br />As long as China has fewer than 50% of its households as homeowners, it is highly unlikely to have "too many houses".<br /><br />It is still possible that too many expensive houses are built for the homebuyers -- based on builders not being able to sell them at a profit.<br /><br />So the empirical question is: how many Chines homebuilders are going bankrupt -- or stopping to build?<br /><br />tiny typo 3rd from last paragragh, missing "related to":<br />the question of housing investment is intimately to efficient resource allocation<br /> Tom Greyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15046612425809449502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6638187113544241481.post-79744441671766840462012-09-02T14:11:59.302-04:002012-09-02T14:11:59.302-04:00Even if the investment question is somehow fixed, ...Even if the investment question is somehow fixed, I suspect it'll take awhile to deflate the bubble. Even Chinese outside of China arguably overinvest in residential real estate, and elite-level Chinese that have the ability to get money out of China also invest (or more properly, "park") it in property.<br /><br />This has inflated a RE bubble in Vancouver, BC, and propped up prices in areas of the US popular with Chinese, such as the SF Bay Area and the "Chinese" parts of the LA area.<br /><br />I think there's also cultural forces at work: China is a very low-trust investment environment, and has always been so, so investing in people or entities you don't know as well as family is a very steep cultural hill to climb. This will probably mean the RE bubble in China will deflate slowly versus having a sudden "pop".<br /><br />The thing that could cause a sudden pop is any sort of regime uncertainty, since RE in China is almost all leaseholds (quite sensitive to the whims of politicians) versus fee-simple titles (much harder to play political games with).Foobaristahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17695839524769425977noreply@blogger.com